90% Retrace
90% retracements in crypto are the norm( which is why I recommended taking profits last year). The above picture shows two bullruns for Dogecoin. The first peaking in early 2014 and saw a 98% retracement at the bottom of the following bear market. After the 2018 bull run Dogecoin saw a 94% retracement.
The current bear market saw Dogecoin drop over 93%.
The story is similar for Chainlink and many other alts
.After 2018 Link dropped 90%. In the current bear market Link was down 90% again from the peak.
Unfortunately, it is still hard to say if the bottom is in. My gut tells me the bottom will hold, but we will revisit the bottom range sometime early to mid next year. This is not going to be a V shaped recovery with BTC sending it back to all-time highs unless something extraordinary happens. We do not know if the bottom is in, but what we do know is that 90% retracements are normal. It happened before, its happening now, and it will happen again. But crypto is not dying.
When Bitcoin was $69,000 and Link was $54, many people were talking FOMOing in and talking about how they missed the boat. Well the boat came back! Now is the time to accumulate and buy. Yes, it might go lower. The difference between a 90% drop and 95 % drop is significant when your witnessing it happen in real time. But if (when) we go back to all-time highs it won’t matter if you bought Link at $7 dollars or $4 dollars or whatever the low ended up being.
There is a lot of belly aching going on around the markets both in crypto and trad. This is why you take profits! So when things come crashing down you
Got major benefit from the bull run and don’t lose sleep over “what ifs”
Have capital to buy the dip
But live and learn. I’ve been told that it takes three crypto bull markets to really make it. The first your just outright confused as to wtf is going on. The second bull run you do better but don’t sell enough because your finally making real money. And the third is when you actually learn from past mistakes. If your lucky enough to see a fourth than I guess that’s when you go shopping for Lambos.
Look around at what’s happening. Meta is down something like 70%. As of this writing Amazon is down 20% after hours last I checked on dismal forecasts. Microsoft rekt. Tech is general is being taken behind the woodshed. Its commodities time to shine ( hopefully you listened to my podcast with John Polomny a while back ). A congressmen as well as a redundant global alphabet agency (I forget which one specifically) recently wrote (begged) the Fed to stop raising rates.
The Fed will pivot. In my opinion they will stop raising rates soon. Let the rates stay elevated until something breaks and then the real pivot when they start cutting. It is bound to happen. Pension funds, zombie companies , government debt, etc. all point to the Fed being forced to cut rates. For now the only thing to do is research crypto, earn capital to accumulate, and learn new skills.
Portfolio
My portoflio right now consists mostly of Link but I am dabbling in some Arbitrum shitcoins as well. I think Arbitrum is going to be a big winner in the “Eth Scaling” saga and thus projects on there should see some liquidity flooding in. I have spoken about GMX before but they are currently the cream of the crop when it comes to Arbitrum dapps. Do your own research however, there are concerns with the way they handle liquidity for trades on the platform.
I am also highly intrigued with ENS ( Ethereum Name Service ) . They are one of few dapps who actually generate real revenue. They are ubiquitous through the ecosystem, crypto native, and generally low tech( not much room for hacks / exploits ).
Other than that I am holding Link and waiting for Staking to go live in December.